How does KAYAK Price Forecast work?

Travelers perform billions of requests for travel information on KAYAK’s websites and mobile apps each year. We analyze these queries to forecast whether the price for a given destination and dates is likely to go up or down over the next seven days.

Our scientists develop these flight price trend forecasts using algorithms and mathematical models. Predictions based on past history can never be perfect, so we can’t guarantee they’ll be correct, which is why we also let you know the confidence of the statistical analysis.

We monitor and measure daily the accuracy of our predictions, by keeping track of a certain number of flights throughout the next seven days (or between your search and departure date whichever is shortest) and what predictions we originally issued, and then verifying whether they turned out to be right or wrong.

How reliable is the “buy now” recommendation?

The “buy now” or “wait” recommendation is based on the same predictive models and data. While not perfect, it’s generally correct more often than not. Check the confidence level displayed to help you assess the recommendation.

Can I use Price Forecast on the KAYAK app?

Yes. The Price Trend graph appears at the top of your flight search results on mobile. You can also manage Price Alerts directly in the app through the navigation menu to receive notifications when prices drop.