Myth #1: There are more delays during the holiday season than any other time of year. 🎁
We’ve got some Debbie Downers in our midst. 84% of American travelers surveyed believe that holiday travel is delayed or canceled more frequently than any other time of year. But according to last year’s data, only 5% of flights were delayed more than 60 minutes over Thanksgiving and only 6% over the December holiday timeframe. And even if you take a step back and look at the full season – while 20.3% of flights in November and December 2023 experienced delays, that was notably less than the summer time (July and August clocked in 28.6% of flights with delays). So, listen, it’s not like we’re saying there’s no possibility you’ll experience a delay… but the odds are in your favor.
Myth #2: Weather is the leading cause of holiday delays. 🌨️
Actually, less than 27% of flight delays over the holiday period in 2023 were delayed due to weather, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Which may shock the 82% of travelers who think weather is the leading cause of disruption. That said, we have seen some pretty brutal weather conditions in 2024. We’d recommend using your favorite 10-day forecaster to give you a better sense of what to expect closer to the date.
Myth #3: Cancellations and delays are getting worse (in fact, 81% of Americans think flight delays have gotten worse over the last 3 years). 😡
You’d be surprised but last year, only 0.33% (that’s POINT thirty-three percent) of flights were canceled (down 28% from the year before. What was the deal with 2022??).
Myth #4: International flights are more likely to be delayed than domestic ones. 🌍
We didn’t see it coming, but this one is actually true. According to 2023 data, less than 23% of domestic flights were delayed over Thanksgiving and Christmas while international ones saw delays of 27% and 33% respectively. Listen, red eyes make us a mess, too
Myth #5: Flight departure time has no impact on delays/cancellations. ⏱️
Okay, this one only half of you are wrong – with 50% of those surveyed believing departure time has no effect. Turns out there may be a correlation between departure time and likelihood of delay. Flights are less likely to be delayed in the morning than the evening. In fact, KAYAK’s data shows that travelers departing before 10am for Thanksgiving or Christmas in 2023 were 12% less likely to experience delays compared to those departing after 5pm, due to fewer air traffic hold-ups and more buffer time for airline scheduling.
Myth #6: Bigger airports have more delays and cancellations. 🛫
This one’s tricky, as some of the biggest airports do tend to fall among the top 20 for delays. That said, Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson (ATL) airport, the biggest airport in the US, ranked among the top 20 for the most on-time airports, whereas Fort Lauderdale (FLL), a smaller airport, secured the #1 spot with the most delays. Additionally, airports on the west coast appear to be more on time than those on the east coast with HNL, SMF, SJC, SAT and PDX all ranking within the top 10 of most on-time arrivals.
Myth #7: Flying on the actual day of a holiday can help avoid delays. 🎄
Okay, this one is true (which may surprise the 87% of you that said it would be better to fly a day or two before the holiday). According to historical data, we saw less delays flying on Thanksgiving, Christmas and Christmas Eve vs. any of the surrounding days. Looking ahead at KAYAK’s data, we’re seeing that the busiest travel days will be December 20th and 21st for both domestic and international travel.
Myth #8: Everyone travels close by for the holidays. 🏠
Sorry grandma, but right now KAYAK searches are showing that 70% of our travelers are going international over the holidays. Even though 81% of travelers think most people are staying in the States for the season. For December holidays specifically, 71% of searches are for trips abroad with places like Cancún, Tokyo and London leading the way.
Myth #9: It’s more expensive than ever to fly over the holidays. 💸
With inflation a hot topic of 2024, we understand why 87% of travelers think a big ticket item like holiday travel is costlier than ever. But this is a myth we’ll happily bust. Flying over the November/December holiday season is expensive but according to our data, flight prices for holiday travel are the lowest we’ve seen in the past 3 years, with domestic flights averaging $439.
Myth #10: Airlines never give money back for delayed or canceled flights. 💰
Where did this myth come from? In fact, 70% of Americans think if their flight is delayed or canceled, they will never see that money again or get reimbursed for the inconvenience. Have none of you watched TikTok? Thanks to new(ish) rules put out by the Department of Transportation.
BONUS Myth #11: I’ll score the best deals on my trip during Black Friday/Cyber Monday/Travel Tuesday sales. 🤑
According to 56% of travelers surveyed, there’s this lingering thinking that the best time to score a deal on your trip is during the shopping holidays post-Thanksgiving. While select airlines and hotels may have deals during these shopping days, our data tells a completely different story. If you look at historical pricing for October, November and December of 2023 as a sample set, it showed a day at the end of October as being the cheapest for domestic flights, but a day at the end of December for international. We saw even more inconsistent results for hotels and rental cars. Long story short, don’t rely on shopping holidays for a great deal. Our Best Time to Travel tool will help you figure out when to book your trip based on where and when you’re traveling. Then, you can set a Price Alert and we’ll keep watch on prices for you – and let you know when we see a change.
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Methodology
This study is based on an analysis of flight delays and cancellations data from Aviation Edge and Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Survey data and Kayak Internal data.
The analysis is conducted on the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday seasons for the years 2023 and 2022 and year-over-year (YoY) comparisons are calculated. The travel dates are defined as follows:
Thanksgiving 2023: November 17 – November 26
Christmas 2023: December 14 – January 3, 2024
Thanksgiving 2022: November 18 – November 27
Christmas 2022: December 14 – January 3, 2023
Full year overview: January 1, 2023 – December 31, 2023
50 origin airports were selected for analysis with the highest search volumes on KAYAK.com in the search period between January 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024.
- Aviation Edge: Aviation Edge is a comprehensive aviation database providing real-time information on flights, airports, and airlines. https://aviation-edge.com/ (Data was collected on October 21, 2024)
For the 50 selected airports, data from Aviation Edge is used to calculate the percentage of flights delayed (departure delays) and canceled for each date, hour and airport. Only flights designated for passenger travel are considered.
A flight is categorized as delayed if its departure is postponed by 30 minutes or more.
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS): BTS is a U.S. government database offering extensive data on transportation statistics, including flight delays and cancellations. https://www.bts.gov/ (Data was collected on October 21, 2024)
Data from BTS is used to identify the most common causes of delays on arrival during the holiday seasons for the 50 selected airports.
- Air Carrier: The cause of the cancellation or delay was due to circumstances within the airline’s control (e.g. maintenance or crew problems, aircraft cleaning, baggage loading, fueling, etc.).
- Extreme Weather: Significant meteorological conditions (actual or forecasted) that, based on the judgment of the carrier, delays or prevents the operation of a flight (e.g. tornado, blizzard or hurricane).
- National Aviation System (NAS): Delays and cancellations attributed to the national aviation system that refer to a broad set of conditions (e.g. non-extreme weather conditions, airport operations, heavy traffic volume, and air traffic control).
- Late-arriving aircraft: A previous flight with the same aircraft arrived late, causing the present flight to depart late.
- Security: Delays or cancellations caused by evacuation of a terminal or concourse, re-boarding of aircraft because of security breach, inoperative screening equipment and/or long lines in excess of 29 minutes at screening areas.
To calculate the share of specific factors of the National Airspace System (NAS), the percentage division was taken from the Federal Aviation Administration (Weather: 74.26%, Volume 14.92%, Equipment 0.61%, Closed Runway 5.96%, Other 4.25%).
Where travelers are going over the holidays
KAYAK considered searches between 3/1/2024 and 9/1/2024 for travel between 12/19/2024 and 1/8/2025. For year over year comparative data, KAYAK used search dates between 2/27/2023 and 8/27/2023 for travel between 12/14/2023 and 1/3/2024.
Flight prices over the holidays
KAYAK considered searches from 4/1/2024 – 10/1/2024 for travel between 11/22/2024 – 1/8/2025. To compare year-over-year, we considered searches from 3/27/2023 – 9/27/2023 for travel between 11/17/2023 – 1/3/2024. To compare vs. 2022, we considered searches from 3/28/2022 – 9/28/2022 for travel between 11/18/2022 – 1/4/202. Percentages and prices are on average and are subject to change.
Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Travel Tuesday
KAYAK considered daily historical searches for the travel period between 10/1/2023 – 12/31/2023 for searches between 6/1/2023 and 12/31/2023 from a US origin. The best time to book (or lack thereof) was determined by looking at average round-trip, economy airfare by day.
