When deciding whether to buy now or wait to see if the price will go down, our first recommendation is that if you see a good price on a route, book it. Our price trend forecasts provide an additional piece of information, and we also suggest using our general when to book guidelines.
Travelers perform over a billion requests for travel information on KAYAK's websites and mobile apps each year. We analyze these queries to forecast whether the price for a given destination and dates is likely to go up or down over the next seven days.
Our scientists develop these flight price trend forecasts using algorithms and mathematical models. Predictions based on past history can never be perfect, so we can't guarantee they'll be correct, which is why we also let you know the confidence of the statistical analysis.
We monitor and measure daily the accuracy of our predictions, by keeping track of a certain number of flights throughout the next seven days (or between your search and departure date whichever is shortest) and what predictions we originally issued, and then verifying whether they turned out to be right or wrong.